Netherlands Elections: Key Players and Central Topics in Snap Vote
Citizens in the Netherlands are set to potentially replace the most rightwing government in recent memory with a more centrist and pragmatic coalition during snap parliamentary elections scheduled for 29 October.
The Situation and Its Significance
Early legislative elections were triggered after the breakdown of the previous government in the summer, when far-right figure the Freedom party leader pulled his PVV from an increasingly fractious and highly ineffectual governing alliance.
The PVV had achieved a surprising first place in the previous general election, and after prolonged talks established a unstable multi-party rightwing coalition with the populist Farmer-Citizen Movement, centrist New Social Contract and center-right VVD.
However, Wilders' coalition partners considered him too toxic for the premier position, which was given to a ex-security head. Wilders, an immigration-skeptic commentator who has required security detail for twenty years, resorted to criticizing from the sidelines.
He ultimately triggered the coalition breakup on June 3 after his allies declined to implement a far-reaching comprehensive immigration restriction proposal that included deploying the army to patrol borders, rejecting all asylum seekers, shutting down refugee hostels and repatriating all Syria nationals.
Although support for the PVV has declined, polls indicate the far-right, Islam-critical party is once more projected to win the most seats in parliament. However, major Netherlands political formations have collectively rejected forming a government with Wilders.
No fewer than 16 parties are forecast to enter parliament, but no single party is projected to win more than about one-fifth of the vote. As usual, the future Netherlands administration, generally an influential player on the European and global scene, will emerge only after coalition negotiations that could last months.
How the System Works and Political Landscape
There are 150 MPs in the Netherlands legislature, meaning a administration requires 76 mandates to achieve majority status. No individual group typically achieves this, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments for over 100 years.
Parliament is elected every four years – sooner when governments collapse – through party-list system, based on an certified roster of contenders in a single, nationwide constituency: any party that wins less than 1% of the vote is assured of a seat.
Similar to many European nations, Netherlands political life have been characterized in modern times by a significant drop in backing of the historical ruling parties from the centre-right and left, whose share of the vote has decreased from more than 80% in the eighties to barely two-fifths now.
In the Netherlands, this process has been paralleled by a spectacular proliferation of minor political groups: twenty-seven are competing this time, including a senior citizens' party, a party for youth, a party for animals, a party for universal basic income, and a party for sport.
Major Parties and Primary Concerns
In the lead is Wilders' PVV, forecast to drop as many as eight of the 37 seats it secured last election. It proposes, among other policies, a complete freeze on refugee admissions, male Ukrainian refugees to be sent home, the military to combat "street terrorists", and an termination to "progressive education" in schools.
Two parties, of the centre-right and centre-left, are neck-and-neck after the PVV. The Christian Democrats (CDA) dominated Dutch politics from the late 1970s to the early 90s, and once more in the start of the millennium, but slumped to only five mandates in the previous poll.
However, under its young leader, its promising new figure, who entered politics only four years ago, the party has bounced back with a electoral platform emphasizing the dire Dutch housing crisis and a commitment of "reasonable, respectful governance". It is on course for as many as 26 seats.
GreenLeft/Labour (GL/PvdA), an political partnership between the environmentalist party and the established social democratic party that is expected to become a complete unification, is on track to secure comparable seats, according to survey data.
Led by the experienced former European commissioner its leader, it has made constructing additional housing its primary focus, and has debatedly proposed a immigration limit of between forty to sixty thousand people a year in its manifesto.
Three other parties look likely to be important players in the new parliament.
The liberal-progressive D66 is projected to gain seats – capturing up to 17, from its current nine – under its straight-talking young leader, with a campaign centred on residential construction (it proposes to build 10 new cities) and an "personal minimum income" for claimants.
The center-right VVD, the party of the ex-premier (now NATO leader), is predicted to slump to no more than sixteen mandates from its current 24, with its leader, accused of moving the group excessively rightward, held responsible for its decrease. It is promising corporate tax reductions and less welfare.
The populist, strictly rightwing JA21 is a spin-off from another far-right party – the once popular, now scandal-hit Forum for Democracy – and appears to be profiting from an departure of supporters from the PVV, BBB and VVD. It could win up to 14 seats.
Besides the VVD and PVV, both remaining members in the ill-fated previous government, the BBB and NSC, are projected to decline, with the centrist party not even sure of representation in parliament.
The top issues currently have been migration policy, with several – occasionally aggressive – demonstrations against planned emergency reception centres for refugee applicants, the living expenses, and the perennial Dutch problem of housing (the country is lacking 400,000 homes).
Potential New Government
Given the highly fragmented state of Dutch politics, what alliances are feasible is just as important as who finishes first (or in this case, probably runner-up, since no major party will govern with Wilders, who maintains he intends to head a minority administration).
After the election, MPs first designate an informateur, who seeks out potential partnerships. Once a viable coalition has been found, a formateur, usually the head of the largest potential partner, begins negotiating the formal coalition agreement. This can take months.
Various combinations look plausible, most involving a combination of political groups from centre left and center right. The most probable, according to political analysts, include CDA and GL/PvdA, plus Democrats 66 and several minor groups potentially including JA21.
