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During the 2016 campaign for the US presidency, Hungary's prime minister stood out as the only head of an EU nation to back Donald Trump. This support came as no shock, considering Mr Orbán's championing of contentious ideas including the "great replacement" theory and his crackdowns on press independence. Analysts have noted that Mr Orbán practically wrote the playbook for Trump's base, with former White House strategist Steve Bannon once praising Orbán as Trump's forerunner.

Electoral Support Ahead of Hungary's Polls

Last week, with crucial Hungarian elections just six months away, the US president returned some political favors. While Orbán aims for a fifth consecutive term governing a country he calls an non-liberal system, his political group lags in opinion polls. An official trip to Washington resulted in more than Trump campaign souvenirs; it brought highly beneficial pre-election gifts.

Energy Exemptions and Financial Shields

Even though previously lecturing European nations on the imperative to eliminate all fuel purchases from Russia, and threatening penalties against states still to import Russian energy, the US president agreed to allow a unique waiver for Hungary – the biggest user in the EU of Russian petroleum. According to Mr Orbán, the Trump administration also agreed to extend a economic protection to the Hungarian authorities if it runs into any later issues, given that Brussels continues to withhold substantial EU funds to the nation on grounds of rule-of-law breaches.

The details of this deal seem vague. But the US president illustrated his inclination to support like-minded partners when the US granted a $20bn emergency credit line to the Argentine leader, Javier Milei. While Mr Orbán failed to obtain a campaign-energising Trump visit to Budapest, the Oval Office meeting still proved a profitable day’s work.

Brussels' Worries and International Implications

Within EU circles, the US president's move probably highlighted the strategic importance of the coming election, ahead of which the centrist challenger, Magyar, has a comfortable lead in the polls. EU chiefs have learned not to look for reliable policies from the Trump administration, and are familiar with the American leader's attempts to undermine the European Union. However the special treatment for Orbán – obtained in exchange for an agreement to buy US gas and nuclear energy – openly contradicts EU aspirations to phase out imports of Russian energy by 2027.

• Starting in 2022, the top importers in the EU of Russian crude, the Hungarian and Slovak nations, have funneled substantial funds to the Kremlin’s war effort.
• At the same time, the Hungarian government has repeatedly used the threat of its veto to hinder advancement in Ukraine's bid to join the EU.
• As Europe strives to forge a unified and effective strategy for backing Ukraine, and bolstering its position in any upcoming peace talks, Mr Orbán’s Putin-friendly presence at the international forums is still a key barrier.

Challenger's Position

Péter Magyar has refrained from pledging a drastic turnaround on the war in Ukraine, and focused his campaigning on internal matters, while emphasizing the importance for the country to finally behave as a constructive EU member. After years of so many years of trolling, EU officials can only remain patient. Mr Orbán’s indifference to basic EU values, like the support for minority protections and the freedom of non-governmental organizations, has persisted as a humiliating embarrassment for the EU. His ongoing blocking tactics on Ukrainian matters threatens to weaken its security prospects.